So, no Greek exit or GREXIT as it had become known.
After epically contentious negotiations an agreement has been reached and Greece remains in Europe.
Greece stays or GRAYS for short!
The terms of the deal from what is known are extremely complex involving stabilisation funds, a new entity to oversee the privatisation of state owned assets, bank re-capitalisations funded from various different bodies and so it goes on.
The main questions occurring to us right now are.
1) Will the German Parliament sign off on the deal as they are entitled to veto if they wish and the Germans have been the harshest critics of any Greek aid package?
The answer is apparently yes they will, as there is no debt forgiveness in the package which was the red line they would not cross. (One assumes this comes later as its central to any longer term sensible recovery plan).
2) Will the Greek Parliament agree to a deal which appears to include large chunks of the proposal that caused them to react with fury and call the referendum in the first place?
Apparently yes they will as the political capital PM Tsipras gained from winning a landslide victory in the referendum has enabled him to create a much broader coalition than previously, which includes pro-European parties.
Why oh Why?
So if they were actually willing to do a deal as now agreed what the bleep were the last few weeks all about?
Why call the referendum and launch such vitriolic attacks on European partners?
The only explanation we can come up with is that Tsipras believed he couldn’t get it done otherwise, that the additional strength it gave him allowed him to do what he needed to do.
So, all those who wrote that everything up to the very last act in this was just sound and fury signifying nothing appear to have been proved right, but this whole saga does not have the feel of skilfully orchestrated Kabuki theatre.
It feels a lot more like the Cuban missile crisis; ending without disaster but a hellishly close call.
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