The inspiration for this blog came from a conversation between the Badger and his youngest cub.
Junior was plainly angsty.
Badger “what’s wrong?”
Junior (known in sett as the Tiny Terrorist) “I’m depressed, I’m fat.”
The Badger, ever ready to dispense great wisdoms immediately starts to explain the need for consistency of action, a plan which is adhered to.
Barely started he is silenced by Junior.
“Dad, you don’t get it, I’ll be unhappy about something else tomorrow.”
The Drama Drug
Why do so many people like Eastender?
Why would anyone want to watch angry people shouting at each other and being variously unpleasant?
A conclusion is that we all mostly live fairly mundane lives, avoiding any direct drama. So we sub contract this out to a tv programme and participate vicariously; we crave drama but in a controllable form.
Personally I like to watch Toy Story and The Big Bang Theory but Badgers are very sensitive creatures.
Over the last 4 months the markets have behaved in a remarkably schizophrenic way.
The year started with predictions laden with the doomiest gloom.
By the beginning of April Goldman Sachs amongst many, were issuing “buy now while stocks last” (at low prices) advice along with recommendations to sell Government Debt.
By the second week of May it is back to “Europe is going to hell in a handcart” “risk off”, and buy Government debt.
Remind you of Eastenders anyone?
THE FINANCIAL HOKI POKI
You put your hot money in
You take your hot money out
In out, in out
Trade it all about
Do the financial HOKI POKI
Trade it all around
That’s all it’s all about
I will catch a snatch of an episode and someone who had previously hated someone else, shot them and thrown them in a canal is passionately kissing the same person and expressing their undying love.
“Janice, you’re me girl, I luv ya darlin”
I ask junior Badger for an explanation?
“Dad that’s ages ago” (two weeks max!). “That’s so last week”
So the markets, Eastenders Drama?!
THE DRAMA ARC
- Will the Euro fully break up? No! The core will remain in Union
- Will Greece leave? Increasingly high likelihood (and getting higher)
- Will Spain and Italy suffer for a time? Yes, quite a lot
- Will they get through it? Yes, they are core
Over the last 70 years we have had a World War, the imminent threat of nuclear war the UK effectively declaring bankruptcy, we have had chronic oil price rises, and countries defaulting on debt (Argentina, Russia). All the major economic regions have had banking crises and England went 20 years without winning an Ashes series (by far the most serious occurrence).
As the Buddha said
“Fear not, this too will pass”
There is no state of permanence; nothing stays the same indefinitely, well apart from the love of a good drama.
NOTE: This is written in a personal capacity and reflects the view of the author. It does not necessarily reflect the view of LWM Consultants. The post has been checked and approved to ensure that it is both accurate and not misleading. However, this is a blog and the reader should accept that by its very nature many of the points are subjective and opinions of the author. This is not a recommendation to buy any product or service including any share or fund mentioned. Individuals wishing to buy any product or service as a result of this blog must seek advice or carry out their own research before making any decision, the author will not be held liable for decisions made as a result of this blog (particularly where no advice has been sought). Investors should also note that past performance is not a guide to future performance and investments can fall as well as rise.