Well who would have thought it, British politics for a day became a living breathing ‘Game of Thrones’.
David Cameron is back as a full King this time (not a regent); the pretenders to the crown have exiled themselves (before they were removed by force) and a new foe has appeared, Daenerys Sturgeon the Mother of Lions. Brilliant drama.
What will it all mean beyond the temporary soap opera of resignation and recrimination?
It’s highly likely that Scotland will be given far greater autonomy to run their own show but at the logical expense of being removed from voting on English matters (this will ease the Tory leadership’s concerns over a small majority and the power this gives to their more right wing MP’s).
We will get a referendum on Europe and the smart money is on the vote going the way of the Scottish referendum, the closer it got the more people realised what they would no longer get if they ceded from the Union, so pragmatism won over patriotism in the end.
The squeeze on benefits will continue; the housing market will do better (particularly London), the reforms on pensions will be finalised and generally well-meaning business people will not be made to feel like robber barons exploiting the powerless peasants.
All in all and as long as the Tories are true to their word on creating an environment of opportunity and inclusion for all it may be quite decent.
For the record I supported the Green Party because I genuinely fear for the future of my girls and their families. It was support of a (guilty) conscience not of pragmatism.
They had no hope of winning but long term the environmental disharmony we are creating is going to change the world far more profoundly than any property crash or banking crisis ever could.
It’s unlikely I’ll be around to suffer it, but the girls probably will which is a very sad thought to ponder whilst I drive around in my SUV.
On a final note one suspects that history will be kinder to Nick Clegg’s leadership legacy than his party are currently.
Their mood as of now is probably summed up by the Country and Western classic of spousal lament.
“My husband ran off with my best friend and I really miss her”
Greece appears to be edging oh so slowly to a deal with Europe on their future spending plans and fiscal policies. If they reach accord they get more money, stay in and pay their debts (well the interest on them, they have no hope of ever repaying the capital in reality).
Markets swing wildly on a comment from whomever; either down when it’s German or up when it’s anyone else really. Wolfgang Schäuble the German Finance minister is playing the role of curmudgeon-in-chief, wonderfully combining elements of the child catcher from Chitty Chitty Bang Bang, Scrooge and Colonel Kilgore from Apocalypse Now (he was the one who loved the smell of Napalm in the morning).
His totally incredulous almost sneering dismissal of all the squirming and conniving from the Greek government reminds me of a teacher I had; I was lying, he knew I was lying, I bored him –“grow up boy, be a man and then we can talk”.
On the topic of interest rates a glitterati of investment gurus spoke in rapid succession over the last week, in what I’m sure wasn’t (but sure looked like) a coordinated operation to highlight the massive overvaluation of bonds and the impending crash in their values when interest rates rise.
Now we have been saying the same thing for some time and markets have completely ignored us. Buffett, Tepper and Gundlach finally pipe up and bond values immediately retreat.
What does this say?
The obvious conclusion is that only Buffett, Tepper and Gundlach read the Badger blogs and as they all earned multiple billions last year, we think it’s a bit rich that they are stealing our stuff.
NOTE: This is written in a personal capacity and reflects the view of the author. It does not necessarily reflect the view of LWM Consultants. The post has been checked and approved to ensure that it is both accurate and not misleading. However, this is a blog and the reader should accept that by its very nature many of the points are subjective and opinions of the author. This is not a recommendation to buy any product or service including any share or fund mentioned. Individuals wishing to buy any product or service as a result of this blog must seek advice or carry out their own research before making any decision, the author will not be held liable for decisions made as a result of this blog (particularly where no advice has been sought). Investors should also note that past performance is not a guide to future performance and investments can fall as well as rise.